The USD/ZAR has been able to sustain a lower move and is testing important support levels which will raise speculative considerations regarding additional wagering.
- The move lower in the USD/ZAR which started with a solid dose of price velocity on the 25th of April has continued into early trading this morning.
- The currency pair is traversing near the 18.46250 ratio and is testing depths not seen since the 10th of April in a sustained manner.
- Importantly the USD/ZAR is trading in correlation with the broad Forex market as the USD has begun to face headwinds. The selloff last Friday was noteworthy and a healthy sign.
The temptation to pursue additional lower moves in the USD/ZAR will continue to entice traders this week if the USD remains under bearish sentiment. While inflation numbers from the U.S have remained sticky, last Friday’s Average Hourly Earnings data did come in below expectations. This bit of numerical evidence certainly helped financial institutions build on sentiment which has started to create selling of the USD from levels which were considered overbought.
Important USD/ZAR Support and Fear of the Unknown
Critical support is now being approached in the USD/ZAR and financial institutions which focus on the currency pair will look at technical charts and also consider fundamental issues that need contemplation. South Africa is going to have its national election in a bit over three weeks. The outcome of the election is likely to produce the need for a coalition government. The election on the 29th is still a distance away, so financial institutions may remain calm in the coming week.
Support levels around the 18.41000 ratio should be watched in the USD/ZAR. If the currency pair starts to challenge these depths it will cause muscle memory among traders to become sensitive, this because the last time the mark was tested in the second week of April a massive reversal higher took place. But this time may prove different, that is if the USD/ZAR can challenge the mark within the near-term, because as the South African election draws closer nervousness will mount.
Short-Term Wagers and Sentiment for the USD/ZAR
Economic data this week will be relatively light from the U.S which means existing behavioral sentiment will be generated from known results and rhetoric from last week. This leaves the door open for the USD/ZAR to potentially explore lower depths, but traders should not get overly ambitious.
- If the USD/ZAR is able to sustain prices below the 18.44000 level this would create the belief additional lower moves can be attained. Depths of 18.40000 to 18.39000 should be kept an eye on.
- However traders should practice take profit orders to catch moves lower which might suddenly reverse if financial institutions think the movement to new depths has been too strong in the short-term.
USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 18.47540
Current Support: 18.44700
High Target: 18.51800
Low Target: 18.39200
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